The sectarian violence will spike not because the Iraqi army and police forces are poorly armed, badly trained or ill prepared. The violence will not return because U.S. forces pull back and take leave of the situation. The violence will return because of what the U.S. military brass will take with them as they withdraw from Iraq. You see George W's "Surge" was more smoke and mirrors than brilliant tactical maneuver despite the hooey expounded and served up by mainstream media outlets. Regardless of the "Neo-Cons" that hail the "Surge" as a success story, this is not even close to the truth. The truth of the matter is the violence calmed down for one reason and one reason only.
That reason was the initiation of a strategy (Most of the time a failed strategy) out of an old play book and used by many a businessman, industrialist, corporations, military's and countries throughout the world from time to time. This strategy is used many times when options are few and all else failed. It's used when the product fails to meet expectations, when the assembly line is producing more scrap than saleable merchandise and used when wars or occupations take a disastrous turn. This strategy comes into play when the know-it-all smart-asses running the show realize they aren't as smart as they thought they were. It's used when the best laid plans go haywire and options have dried up and blown away.
The strategy is simple and easy; the strategy is to throw more money at the problem, usually more money than the problem is worth. As they sent more troops in to quell the violence in Bagdad, Kirkuk and other Iraqi cities they simultaneously sent in a "Bag Man" with plenty of cash to spread around. The violence in Iraq didn't slow down because of the influx of new troop concentrations. The violence tapered off because of the bundles and bundles of cash the military (With the blessing of Washington) brought with them to appease various factions responsible for the bombings and killings.
The number of U.S. troops brought in actually had little to do with the relative calm of the Iraqi streets. It was the amount of money brought in and being doled out as payment to various sects in Iraq to stop fighting. This is why the supposed "Awakening Councils" were formed in Iraqi neighborhoods. Not to promote peace as claimed by the media, but to serve as regional paymasters to disperse these funds to the local warlords. Like they say: "Money talks and bullshit walks".
When it came to collecting easy money and I'm talking about thousands and hundreds of thousands of good old American "Green Backs" that are being thrown at the warring factions in Iraq, things changed. Suddenly it becomes very profitable and fashionable for all sides to hold their militias in check and stop blowing people up for awhile. But as the troops pull back, Uncle Sam's purse strings will pull tight and the flow of dollars will stop. The fat payola enjoyed by the Sunni, Shite's, kurds and Turks is slowly shrinking and will soon be gone. The day the United States stops paying the various sects and militias not to fight, all hell is going to break lose. The only "Surge" that worked was the surge of American money not American might.
This war was a foolish and reckless undertaking from day one. No matter what beautiful pictures are shown or optimistic commentary comes out of the talking heads on mainstream corporate television, the United States involvement in Iraq can only end with a rude awakening and realization that far more harm was done on many levels than good because of the invasion of Iraq, regardless of how our involvement ends. In my opinion Civil War in Iraq is almost assured and no amount of troops, guns or propping up of puppet regimes from the United States is going to make a differance in the outcome. The future of Iraq must be in the hands of the people of Iraq as it should have been from the start. The only reasonable solution the United States has to their involvement in Iraq, is the only solution there ever was: GET OUT AND STAY OUT!
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